RE/MAX Canada expects average residential prices to decrease by 3.3 per cent in 2023

• The biggest price declines across the country are expected in Ontario and Western Canada, where some markets may see average residential sale prices decrease by 10 to 15 per cent
• Price growth outlooks are anticipated in Atlantic Canada markets, with average residential sale prices expected to increase by eight per cent in Halifax and four per cent in St. John’s in 2023
• 60 per cent of regions in Canada are expected to be balanced markets in 2023, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents
• 73 per cent of Canadians still say that home ownership is the best long-term investment they can make

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, November 29, 2022 – Amid rising interest rates, and a looming recession, RE/MAX Canada is anticipating a modest decline of 3.3 per cent in average residential sales prices across the country in 2023. The estimates are based on surveys of RE/MAX brokers and agents from coast to coast, as reflected in RE/MAX’s 2023 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report.

In sharp contrast to 2022, most regions analyzed in the report will experience more balanced conditions in 2023 – a trend that’s already starting to materialize in many regions as a result of current economic conditions.

According to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX as part of the report, Canadians view home ownership as the best long-term investment they can make (73 per cent). Yet, the majority (67 per cent), are feeling less optimistic in the short-term with 67 per cent less inclined to buy in the first half of 2023, and 62 per cent less inclined to sell in that time frame.

“It’s good see the majority of markets moving toward more balanced conditions, which is typically defined by 45 to 90 days on market. This is a much-needed adjustment from the unsustainable price increases and demand we saw early in 2022,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Many Canadians have understandably expressed hesitancy about engaging in the real estate market early in 2023, in the wake of rising interest rates and broader economic uncertainties. However, despite this, a greater number of Canadians consider real estate to be a solid long-term investment ,compared to this time last year. As we head into the new year, it’s important that governments work collaboratively to support housing affordability and address the supply challenges that Canadians continue to face, in order to make home ownership feasible for those who want it.”

“We’re confident that as economic conditions improve and the market continues to even out into Q3/Q4 2023, a more-regular pace of activity will resume. It’s especially critical during challenging economic times, that staying informed and working with an experienced real estate professional can help Canadians clarify some of the unknowns, help them find a home within their means, and ultimately make the best decision possible,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada.

Regional Canadian Housing Market Insights

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market in 2022 and share their estimated outlook for 2023. Based on their insights, 60 per cent of housing markets in Canada are expected to be balanced markets in 2023, impacted by modest price declines and less activity.

With the exception of Halifax, NS, Ottawa, ON and the region of Montreal, QC, balanced market conditions are expected in Canada’s major city centres, including the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), ON, Mississauga, ON, Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), BC, Calgary, AB, Regina, SK and Winnipeg, MB, in what is being called a healthy development. Move-up and move-over buyers are driving activity in these regions with the exception of Ottawa, ON and Calgary, AB, where first-time buyers are expected to lead. Following a two-year frenzy fuelled by the pandemic, average residential sale prices are anticipated to decrease in Canada’s priciest markets – the GVA and GTA.